Recently I’ve been hearing about a new game called short deck. It’s played just like normal Texas hold’em, except it’s played with a short deck—all the cards deuce through five are removed from the deck. Aces play as the low end of a nine-high straight. Some variants reorder the hand rankings, most notably changing it so that flushes beat a full house.

As in regular hold'em, in short-deck poker the aces still count as high or low when making straights. The lowest possible straight in a game of short-deck poker is A x.

You end up getting to the correct answer in many situations through intuition honed over zillions of hands. Short deck wrecks a lot of those intuitions. The basic concepts of poker are all the. In a full-deck NLHE game, your chances of flopping a flush draw with your suited hand is 11%, a chance that drops to 9.5% in the short deck game. Even when you do flop a flush draw, the chances of completing that flush draw by the river are 34.5% in NLHE, but only 30% in Short Deck. Where things do get different in Short Deck poker, however, is in the ranking of poker hands from highest to lowest and which cards are actually in the deck. Short Deck poker also frequently incorporates antes into the game to increase the pot sizes and make the action even more frenetic. Remove All Cards 2-5. Randy Lew, known as 'Nanonoko' on Twitch, has been the go to commentator for the new poker varietal 'Triton Hold 'Em' (also known as 'short deck poker.'

When I first heard about it, it sounded to me like the new math would break a lot of players’ intuition they’ve built playing regular no-limit hold’em. So the first thing I wanted to do was go through how some of the math changes.

Let’s say you get dealt 10h 9h. Let’s go through the math of how often you flop straight and/or flush draws both for normal hold’em and then for short deck.

Full Deck Draws

Once you have your two cards, 50 cards remain in the deck. Three of these will appear on the flop, so there are 50 choose 3 total possible flops. (You can type 50 choose 3 into Google and it will give you the answer.) In this case, that’s 19,600 possible flops.

To flop a flush draw, you need two of the 11 remaining hearts on the flop, as well as an unrelated third card. So that’s 11 choose 2 times 39 (the number of non-hearts remaining in the deck). Since 11 choose 2 is 55, the total number of flush draw flops is 2,145. Divide that by the total number of flops, and you get about 11 percent, which is how often you will flop a flush draw.

To flop an open-ended straight draw you need either Q-J, J-8, or 8-7 on the flop—in each case also with an unrelated card. There are 16 ways to have Q-J (four queens times four jacks), and 16 ways each for the other two for 48 total ways.

If we specify that the unrelated card can’t be one that completes the straight, there are 40 possible unrelated cards for each of the 48 total ways to flop a straight draw. That makes 1,920 total straight draw flops. Divide that by the total number of flops, and you get about 10 percent, which is how often you will flop a straight draw.

Short Deck Draws

In short deck, there are 34 remaining cards after you get your two, so 34 choose 3 or 5,984 possible flops.

There are only 7 remaining hearts, so to flop a flush draw you have 7 choose 2 times 27 possible flops. That’s 567 flops or about 9.5 percent of flops. The full deck chance was 11 percent so flush draws are somewhat less common in short deck.

To flop a straight draw you still have your 48 ways to get Q-J, J-8, or 8-7 on the flop, but now there are only 24 unrelated third cards. That’s 1,152 total straight draw flops or about 19 percent. The chance of flopping a straight draw in short deck is much higher than it is with a full deck.

Making The Draw

Everyone knows the chance to make flush and straight draws in normal hold’em are nine and eight outs respectively. You can use the rule of two and four to estimate the chance of making the draws. But the exact way to figure it out is to do something similar to what we did on the flop. The only twist is you calculate the chance of missing the draw and then subtract that from one.

There are 47 choose 2 possible turn and river cards. That’s 1,081. If you have a flush draw (nine outs) then there are 38 cards that brick your draw, so you have 38 choose 2 ways to miss. That’s 703 total misses out of 1,081, or 65 percent. That leaves a 35 percent chance you hit your flush draw.

Straights work the same, except you have 39 cards that brick your draw. That’s 741 total misses, or 68.5 percent. That leaves a 31.5 percent chance of hitting the draw.
In short deck, there are 31 choose 2 possible turn and river cards. That’s 465. A flush draw has only five outs in this game. So there are 26 cards that brick your draw, and you have 26 choose 2 ways to miss, or 325. That’s about a 70 percent chance to miss, so it’s about a 30 percent chance to make a flush.

Open-ended straights still have 8 outs though. So there are only 23 cards that brick your draw, giving you 23 choose 2 ways to miss, or 253. That’s about a 54.5 percent miss percentage, so you hit your straight about 45.5 percent of the time.

That’s pretty close to 50-50! And you flop a straight draw to your connector nearly 20 percent of the time. Flushes are a bit harder to make in this game, but straights are much easier.

Flopping A Set

The odds of flopping a set change also in short deck. You can figure it out the same way as the chance of making draws—count the flops where you miss the set and subtract from one. With a full deck, there are 48 choose 3 ways to miss your set, or 17,296. That’s about 88 percent of flops, leaving about a 12 percent chance to flop a set.
In short deck, there are 32 choose 3 ways to miss your set, or 4,960 flops. Divide that by the 5,984 total possible short deck flops, and there’s about an 83 percent chance to miss, leaving a 17 percent chance to flop a set.

Final Thoughts

I don’t know how many of us will be playing short deck soon. The game is popular in only a small number of places, mostly in ultra high-stakes cash games. I think one reason it’s become popular in those games is because it turns your ingrained intuitions against you.

When you’ve played hold’em long enough, you begin to internalize the probabilities to make certain hands. You end up getting to the correct answer in many situations through intuition honed over zillions of hands.

Short deck wrecks a lot of those intuitions. The probabilities to make the basic hands are just plain different. Therefore hand values are different. The hands to semi-bluff with and bluff catch with and so on are also different. Blockers mean more in some contexts.

The basic concepts of poker are all the same. But the details of how to resolve conflicts between competing concerns is turned on its head.

Shaking things up in this way always tends to reward the best poker players. The ones who can adjust more quickly than anyone else. The ones who can figure things out rather than rely solely on learned intuition.

Doing the math in this article is the beginning of this process. ♠

Ed’s newest book, The Course: Serious Hold ‘Em Strategy For Smart Players is available now at his website edmillerpoker.com. You can also find original articles and instructional videos by Ed at the training site redchippoker.com.

6+ Hold’em is a popular ‘short deck’ poker format that plays much like Texas Hold’em, but with a few exciting differences:

• All cards lower than a six are removed from the deck
• Everyone posts an ante and only the button posts a blind – known as the ‘button blind’
• A flush beats a full-house

Available in cash games, exclusively at PokerStars, 6+ Hold’em is your chance to play an action-packed variant loved by high-stakes players around the world.

Let’s face it – fives, fours, threes, and twos got in the way a little bit in regular Holdem. They were consistent contributors to dry boring flops, blank turns, and no one ever making a hand. 6+ Hold’em (known conventionally as ‘Short Deck’) has been taking the poker world by storm and giving jaded long-term players a fresh breath of life as they gamble it up in this wild format of the game played with a 36-card deck. Six Plus is exactly as it sounds. There is no card in the deck below a six. As you can imagine, this leads to a lot less discoordination and makes it far easier to make a strong hand. When I first saw this game, I recall my first thought being:

‘Wait a second…it’s almost impossible not to make a straight!’

While this is a huge exaggeration. I think it captures the instinctive reaction of most players. Regular Holdem players must adapt quickly in 6+ Hold’em, migrating from a world where good hands are relatively rare, to one where they come along much more frequently. We shall get into the strategic effects of this shift in a future article. Today’s job is to get our heads around what hand rankings and rules have changed and why these changes were necessary to make 6+ Hold’em the harmoniously enjoyable game that it has become.

Blind & Antes

6+ Hold’em uses a ‘button blind’ structure: every player posts an ante, and the player seated at the button position is the only one who posts a blind – meaning there is only one blind per hand, rather than traditional small/big blind format.

The action starts with the player seated to the left of the button. Each hand then plays out according to Texas Hold’em rules, with pre-flop, flop, turn and river betting rounds.

Planning Poker Deck

If you’ve played Texas Hold’em games before, the rules of 6+ Hold’em are easy to follow.

Hand Rankings

The table below illustrates how the hand rankings have changed in 6+ Hold’em to accommodate the shorter deck:

The Top Hands

There is no change at the very top of the hand ranking chart. While you will make a straight flush and a royal flush more often in 6+ Hold’em than in Holdem, it is still very hard to make these hands relative to the other hands. Four of a Kind is a hand you will see much more often than in Holdem since there are now 9 ranks of card instead of thirteen but is still rare compared with other 6+ Hold’em holdings.

Flushes vs. Boats

The main change to the hierarchy is that Flushes now beat Full Houses (boats). This makes sense and to see why think of it this way.

In regular Holdem, there are four 9s in the deck, but there are also four of twelve other ranks of card. One in thirteen cards is a nine in regular Holdem. In 6+ Hold’em, there are only nine ranks of card and so one in nine cards is a 9. If you are dealt 99, any card in the deck goes from having a 2/50 = 4% chance of being a 9 to having a 2/34 = 6% chance. In 6+ Hold’em, it is 50% easier to find those set making cards. In fact, in 6+ Hold’em you will fail to flop a set (32/34 x 31/33 x 30/32) = 83% of the time. This means that we flop a set 17% of the time! After we have done the hard part, and hit one of our two cards to make a set, it is much easier for the board to then pair since sixteen of the cards that would prevent it from pairing in regular holdem (the deuces through fives) do not exist. Those cards really did spoil all the fun.

As for flushes, they are sadly no easier to make and come along less often than a full house does. While there are less ranks of cards in the 6+ Hold’em deck, there are still the same number of suits. Had we also removed all of the diamonds from the deck, we would have made flushes more likely. As it is, every card still has a one in four chance of being a spade (13/52 = 9/36).

One thing that has changed about flushes in short deck is that when a you hold a card that blocks an opponent from making a flush, you will block a greater portion of his possible flush cards. The board is J♣8♣6♣10♠Q♥ and we hold A♥K♣. In regular Holdem, we would remove one of ten remaining clubs, leaving Villain with nine clubs to instead of ten to form a flush. In other words, there are 10% less clubs in the deck for him to make a flush with when we hold this blocker. In 6+ Hold’em, there were only six possible clubs and we reduce this number to five due to our K♣ blocker. We have now made it 17% harder for Villain to hold a flush by removing a sixth of the clubs in the deck. Blockers matter more in 6+ Hold’em in just about every way due to the smaller deck, not just when it comes to blocking flushes.

Straights vs. Trips

Short Deck Poker Hand Rankings

While it is easier to flop three of a kind in 6+ Hold’em than it is to flop a straight, it is easier to make a straight by the river. There are only 9 ranks of cards remaining in the deck so if the board doesn’t double-pair, there will be straights everywhere. A board like K♠J♠10♣8♥6♥ is scary at the best of times in regular Holdem. In 6+ Hold’em, there are no deuces through fives to dilute the number of straights in each player’s range. The result is that it is incredibly easy to hold a straight in 6+ Hold’em. Pre-flop you will be dealt [97, Q9, AQ] 48/630 times. In Regular Holdem you will be dealt these hands 48/1326 times. While there are some versions of short deck Holdem where three of a kind beats a straight, this is not the case in 6+ Hold’em and so connected cards are very powerful. This format of the game encourages action by providing an incentive to play connected cards, which come along very frequently.

We should also note that there is a rather unconventional looking straight available in 6+ Hold’em. A6789 is a low straight in 6+ Hold’em just as A2345 is a low straight in regular Holdem. Look out for this one, it can really tak you by surprise if you are not careful.

Short Deck Poker Hands

Conclusion

Short Deck Poker Hand Odds

6+ Hold’em is a different game. Some of the rules are very different, but as we have seen, these adaptations have been necessary to ensure that the game is fair and balanced. Now that we are acquainted with the different hand rankings and hand formation rules, it is time to get stuck into some strategy. In my next article on 6+ Hold’em, I will be discussing pre-flop hand selection.

Short Deck Poker Hands Clip Art

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